Readership Increases!

Matti - Thanks for the post. It is encouraging to know someone has an interest in this experiment and my blog.

In a few short days, I will have been playing for 4 months on the same $10 buy-in from Dec. 3. Honestly, for me this is quite a milestone, especially considering the absurd number of hands played since then....I'd rather not count them. In that sense, it has turned around my game from an obviously losing one, to one that is at least not losing. So far I am not a winning online player. The longer this experiment goes on, the stronger my resolve grows. I can now hope that if I can go from a losing player - buying in a few times a month - to a player who can at least play within a bankroll for several months without going broke, that there is some reason to expect that I might continue to improve, catch a few tournament wins, and test myself at the next higher limits.

I have shown that I can grind at the cash tables for long periods of time without going completely broke, but that also demonstrates that it won't make me rich at my current level of play. Either through grinding or several tournaments pay-outs, I need to grow the bankroll to the point where I can afford a tournament buy-in that will pay big. (Or several tournament wins at the lower limits.) I have always been a better tournament player than ring game player. I intend to stay with this experiment, and I'll know after one year whether I have any hope to reach $10,000. If I am still at $10 after one year, I just may not have what it takes to get there. On the other hand, if I continue to improve and I'm up to $100 or $200 by then, there may be hope to continue.

If you are interested in getting a handle on your bankroll, or tired of constantly buying in every few weeks, or want to improve your play and are not too proud to prove yourself at the .01/.02 tables, this experiment is for you. I don't think I've posted this article, Starting from Zero yet, but it is dated April 30, 2007 when Chris Ferguson was about a year into his project. He was still at the lowest limits then, but within 6 or 7 months he was to $10,000.

I am no Chris Ferguson, but I can't wait to see where my bankroll will be on September 3, one year into my experiment. By the way, if you run into Chris Ferguson, I'd love to hear what he thinks about my experiment. I'm always open to advice from the pros.

NBCT99

Gettin' Stuck

This aint easy.

I've been stuck at under $10 most of the last two weeks. I finally tried a 45 player Sit & Go to break out of the doldrums, and apparently it worked. I was in very good postition to win and got drawn out on (river) for a second place finish and a $10 prize. I may begin playing more tournaments, but I've been down that road before, and if I don't money 4 or 5 times in a row, I second guess that strategy. I do believe that only a tournament win or wins can propell me to a new level in this experiment, but it is now a matter of having a bankroll large enough to cushion 10 or so tournaments without big payouts. Maybe I should stop worrying and play in 10 or so 45 player S&G's and see what happens.

Meanwhile, I got busted out of a 53 player tournamnet at Argosy over break. The worst part about it was that it was the only sunny and warm day of break and Dad called me a half hour before the tourney and wanted to play golf with me. Duh.

Still Hanging On

The Rest of the Story....

Of course, I went all-in. Seat 6 called his last $1.66 and Ted folded! The pot was now $4.97.



Qh came on the turn to complete my flush, and to make the victory more complete the 9d came on the river to complete the counterfeited straight. (I was really only focused on hitting the flush or even the straight flush.)



After going through the hand with Poker Tracker I found out that PokerStars provides the value of the opponents' mucked losing calling hand. Seat 6 had raised it up to .52 with pocket 7's before the flop, and was eager to call my all-in move after flopping trips! I did beat him two ways, looking back at it, but according to Poker Stove, I was about a 3-2 dog after the flop. If I input the hand correctly, Poker Stove is telling me that after the flop I was about a 38% chance to win and Seat 6 was about 60%. I don't know what Ted folded after I went all-in and got called. Maybe he was playing AK. In this analysis, it appears that I was an underdog and might have made an incorrect play.


I just could not get away from this hand, and I could not imagine forcing myself to make a difficult decision later in the hand, or worse, two difficult decisions that might slowly bust me. I was sticking with the hand for better or for worse, and I didn't mind getting it all in right then and there. After all, someone might fold, and I did not mind enlarging the pot with so many outs.


What about implied odds? There was already $1.80 in the pot. If I put in $1.92 after the flop and both players could call (which is basically the case as I had seat 6 covered to within just a few cents), didn't I create a scenerio of implied odds offering me more than 3-1 on my money if both players called? If both players called $1.92, the pot would be $7.56, laying me odds of 4-1. If so, I'd need a 25% chance to win the hand to break even. As it turns out, I was about a 38% chance against Seat 6, and apparently better than that against Tedward since he folded. Of course I didn't know that at the time, but it appears in this analysis I made the correct play. I would like to have known this at the time, but as I said before, my gut was telling me that this was the only play.

What do you think of my analysis?


I went on to play another buy-in or two and finished Monday night (now pronounced Money night) at $9.11. If I had lost that hand, I'd be at $2.52 and steaming. Looking back, I'm not sure whether I'd have had the sense to get away from the computer. I might have busted out twice and gotten below the minimum buy-in.



For now, I'm still alive.

Finally, A Hand Worth Writing About

OK Anonymous, I know you really want some analysis of interesting hands, not just a reflective droning of my idiosyncrasies. Here is a hand worth reading about, and one I want to go through again myself just so I can know whether I made the correct play in the heat of battle. I'll have to consult Poker Stove on this one. It felt like the right play at the time, and I'd like to know how you'd play it, at least after flop. I'll take the blame for the two calls that got me to the flop to begin with.

Perhaps what makes this hand all the more interesting are the following factors:
1. When I bought in, my entire bankroll was $3.52. I was in no position to take unnecessary risks if this experiment was to continue.
2. When the hand was dealt, I had reached the point that it was time to wait for the blinds and leave the table; I was up quite considerably - $2.44 on the table after a $1 buy-in. In fact, I had decided ahead of time to leave immediately after a big win so as not to have to wait for the blinds (putting my stack at risk by being available.) This in itself could be the subject of a post, and had I tracked my performance while waiting for the blinds, I suspect I'd find that I've lost a ridiculous amount of money in the hopes that I'd double an already doubled stack while waiting for the blinds to reach me. I've risked and lost a ton of money doing this. When you hit one or two big a hands in this position it is sweet, exactly because under Ferguson's rules it is so rare to triple up, quadruple up, or more with one buy-in. It is just so tempting to stay. In fact, I decided to stay and wait for the blinds in case a monster hand came.
3. I was seat 5, Tedward was seat 7. He and I had been winning each other's chips and it was getting a little personal.
4. The hand itself and the way it unfolded. I was dealt a suited gapper - 10-8h. I can't wait to have Poker Traker show me how much I've lost with the middle suited gapper. It will be a lot. I can't seem to fold this hand preflop. Anyway, there I was with my 10-8h and I call the .02 blind, and Tedward makes it .12 to go (and has me covered with over $3 in chips.) I roll my eyes thinking I should never have called the blind with a speculative hand with no margin in my bankroll. Take the money and run, don't lose a dime of it now. But, as it was, I called the .10 raise. Seat 6 between me and Tedward raises it .40 to .52. Ted and I call to make the pot over $1.80 and to the flop which came 6h-8s-7h. Holy cow - high pair, a flush draw, an inside straight draw, not to mention a back door straight flush draw. How can I get away from this? My big worry was a higher pair - someone raising it up pre-flop with 10's or J's.

$1.80 in the pot and $1.92 in front of me. After the flop I was first to act. My heart was pumping, my mouth was watering, my gut was telling me to get my chips into the middle NOW. Remember Harrington's first-in vigorish? I was feeling it. I didn't know any other way to play it, except to put my chips in. I couldn't calculate the odds fast enough, and the timer was warning me to play.

How would you play it? Surely someone would bet out if I didn't, and then another decision on a slippery slope. My gut said shove it in. Before I put it into Poker Stove and compute the odds, how would you have played this hand post-flop?

Stay tuned for my decision, along with the results of Poker Stove and how the hand ultimately turned out....

Monday Night Poker

Alright, every time I go on a losing streak I learn something, which explains why I'm a genious.

First of all, I suck at poker. I guess that's why I'm doing this.

Now that that's out of the way, check out my latest revelation. I suck a lot less on Monday nights. How much less? Looking back to Jan. 1 (the same period of time in which I gave up $27 on Fridays), I have made $33.92 on Mondays. Not surprisingly, I spend much less time playing on Mondays. The three days I play the most I am way down; the three days I play least I am way up.

Less is more.

Now I need to figure out what to do on Friday nights. Wanna go play poker?

It Don't Take No Software to Tell You Everything....

Does it matter what day of the week it is?

After a frustrating Friday night losing about $7, I became curious about my Friday night play. On or around December 1, prior to my blogging days, well into this experiment, I had played an enourmous number of hands in November because I was basically too sick to do anything else. I played a huge amount on the weekends, where a quick analysis revealed I had lost $45 on Saturdays and Sundays since the beginning of my experiment.

With this in mind after my dismal Friday night performance of marathon play, I became curious if my Friday nights were costing me money. In fact, going back to Jan. 1, my Friday night play has lost me $27. With my bankroll currently under $10, it is cause for reflection. I can remember thinking last night how tired and grumpy I was - I was short on sleep all week. But, Friday night was my night to vegg out, eat pizza, and play poker. I should have gone to bed rather than play so much. Duh. I wonder if that will show up in Poker Tracker!

Jesus Speaks (Red Letter Edition)

Ever wonder what it was like for Chris Ferguson to grow his bankroll from $1 to $20,000? What challenges he faced, what it was like to move up in the limits? How many tables at a time he played? How hard it was for a pro to actually do it? Click here and scroll down the list of Podcasts all the way down to #2 and listen to Chris describe what he went through to make it from $1 to $20,000 online...hear what he has to say and maybe you will see why I feel a little better now about my experiment so far. (He lost his first dollar and had to re-load.)

Am I Serious? PokerTracker v3.0 beta 6?

I made the leap and got a statistical program for analyzing my hand histories. Lucky for me, the beta version was out for free. Now, I need to become familiar with it enough to make it useful. Anonymous, if you are out there, I'm ready for the tutorial. I can see that it is a truly amazing program that can tell virtually everything about one's play, as well as the opponents' play against you, and hopefully it will reveal holes in my play I can profit from fixing.

Today's title alludes to whether I'm really serious about making money at this, or just playing to play. Unfortunately, too often I'm playing just to play. Ironically, I seem to know exactly how to play, but I don't have the discipline or patience to follow through and do it.

Sort of a metaphor for the human condition, isn't it?

I'm really disappointed in my loosening play. The good news is that I'm not going broke and re-buying. In that sense, this exercise has improved my level of play. In fact, an analysis of my records shows that in the two months prior to this experiment, I deposited $60 (in $10 increments) to PokerStars. That means online poker (at that time) was costing me $30 per month; I have only deposited $30 in the last six months, and I have not made any deposits at all for three months. I suppose I should be happy about the $10,000 challenge to the extent that it seems to have saved me a lot of money and delivered on one of its promises: to escape the non-stop deposits to my PokerStars account. (I prefer not to discuss the significantly higher amounts of my several 2006 deposits. It kind of scares me to think about the kind of money I was using to play so "recreationally." I know that that same money would be worth a lot more if it were in my PokerStars account now. Tempting, isn't it, to just load up the online account and start with real bankroll? But I don't deserve it yet. For me, it must be earned.)

The fact remains that I am under $20, and only now (as in the last two days), seeming to take it seriously again. I have become too willing lately to take chances - playing desperate rather than smart; wanting to win fast instead of playing correctly.

It's funny how I always sit down for a very short blog that turns out to be an hour-long analysis of my play.

I'm not sure whether to celebrate going three months without a buy-in, or to berate myself for squandering 80% of my $50 high mark. April 2 will mark the end of the first six months of the challenge. Stay tuned.

Hand Analysis

I'm somewhat reluctant to offer hand analysis because it can quickly turn in to a whining session, like yesterday when I flopped a straight and got drawn out runner runner by a flush on the river. (I did play it too slow with several small bets; after all I wanted some action with an obvious straight draw on the board.) Or later when I came all-in with Aces behind a re-raise and got two calls and got busted by K9 with a straight.

We've all been there, and this is more whining than analysis.

Today, I guess I may have learned something about JJ. Twice I've put in huge raises 10 times the blind or re-raised 5 times the raise. Both times I was re-raised and ended up all-in before the flop. I was beaten the first time by Pocket Aces, (which made trips on the river) and beaten the second time my AK offsuit, I think by a king on the river or turn, maybe on the flop. The alternative play is to make a moderate raise or just call a raise and see if any overcards come on the flop. Well, in these hands, I'm not sure that would have helped.

For example, even in the hand against AK and a K did come on the flop, I probably would have bet out to follow up my preflop aggression. Against AA the flop came out benign, so I would have been very aggressive against a very non-threatening board. In both hands I feel I was doomed to lose a lot of money or go broke whether the flop seemed dangerous or not. Even as I sort through this, I'm still not sure which is the better way to play JJ pre-flop. Maybe I should consult my library.....my bankroll is going the wrong way; maybe reading instead of playing would save me some $$$.

Chris Ferguson Update

In my last post, I mentioned that I'd need a huge win in a tournament with hundreds or thousands of players to meet my $10,000 goal. Today I read a tip from Ferguson courtesy of Full Tilt in which he discussed "running bad." It was quite fascinating for me on a number of levels. First, in the article was a link which led me to information on his breakthrough tournament win, quoted here.....

"Then, on November 26th, 2006, Chris made a major breakthrough, turning a $1 tournament buy-in into to $104 in prize money by finishing second in a 683-person tournament. Even with that huge bankroll boost, it still took Chris nine more months of hard work to reach his goal and break the $10,000 dollar mark."

But perhaps more interesting is what he said in the new article about what happened to his play (and his bankroll) once he hit the $10,000 mark....

"Even though I hit my goal, I decided to keep playing and rapidly built up to $28,000. Three months later I was down to $9K. ""

The article goes on to discuss the difference between tilt and playing well through a bad spell, even when the results are not good. I recommend it; I think it is a very worthwhile read.

Alright, deer_nevets, this is where you finally make another post and lavish praise on my figuring out how to use text as a link!

As for my recent play, I've had some bad beats, but I'm afraid that I become impatient and try to manufacture huge hands rather than waiting for them to develop on their own. I try too often to make money fast. Occasionally, maybe once every couple of weeks, this happens on its own through nothing but solid play; and when it does, I seem to expect it to continue for days. Taking a look at my graph, it is apparent that I'll need to really be aware of the quality of my play during the days following a huge gain.

Be patient with me, this may take a couple of years. I still have a lot to learn....

Find me (NBCT99) at Poker Stars at the .01/.02 tables.