The Rest of the Story....

Of course, I went all-in. Seat 6 called his last $1.66 and Ted folded! The pot was now $4.97.



Qh came on the turn to complete my flush, and to make the victory more complete the 9d came on the river to complete the counterfeited straight. (I was really only focused on hitting the flush or even the straight flush.)



After going through the hand with Poker Tracker I found out that PokerStars provides the value of the opponents' mucked losing calling hand. Seat 6 had raised it up to .52 with pocket 7's before the flop, and was eager to call my all-in move after flopping trips! I did beat him two ways, looking back at it, but according to Poker Stove, I was about a 3-2 dog after the flop. If I input the hand correctly, Poker Stove is telling me that after the flop I was about a 38% chance to win and Seat 6 was about 60%. I don't know what Ted folded after I went all-in and got called. Maybe he was playing AK. In this analysis, it appears that I was an underdog and might have made an incorrect play.


I just could not get away from this hand, and I could not imagine forcing myself to make a difficult decision later in the hand, or worse, two difficult decisions that might slowly bust me. I was sticking with the hand for better or for worse, and I didn't mind getting it all in right then and there. After all, someone might fold, and I did not mind enlarging the pot with so many outs.


What about implied odds? There was already $1.80 in the pot. If I put in $1.92 after the flop and both players could call (which is basically the case as I had seat 6 covered to within just a few cents), didn't I create a scenerio of implied odds offering me more than 3-1 on my money if both players called? If both players called $1.92, the pot would be $7.56, laying me odds of 4-1. If so, I'd need a 25% chance to win the hand to break even. As it turns out, I was about a 38% chance against Seat 6, and apparently better than that against Tedward since he folded. Of course I didn't know that at the time, but it appears in this analysis I made the correct play. I would like to have known this at the time, but as I said before, my gut was telling me that this was the only play.

What do you think of my analysis?


I went on to play another buy-in or two and finished Monday night (now pronounced Money night) at $9.11. If I had lost that hand, I'd be at $2.52 and steaming. Looking back, I'm not sure whether I'd have had the sense to get away from the computer. I might have busted out twice and gotten below the minimum buy-in.



For now, I'm still alive.